Real-Time Market Analysis
We are at the brink of a cylindrical upstaging. VMware is more challenged than any other party we have to mention today. KVM is the least worrisome of the rest. Microsoft's Hyper-V has its own trajectory and will soon define and refine its own strategy as it goes on embedding (maybe they'll just call it embedding and still do the old fashioned hulky-bulky way) its "virtualization technology" into all their core-applications (where they draw a revenue of $12Bn yearly, more or less).
Citrix's purchase of Xen is indeed still an edible, digestible and maybe at some time in the future a launchpad (I am not saying disposable) to its future directions. Could that be a possible acquisition path or could it mean that Citrix would rise until we really would start believing when the products get recognition and start feeding the market or vice versa? Well its own market is still healthy and is growing smartly. When Microsoft came out with its Terminal Server we all thought that it'd be a killer, somehow that didn't happen. We saw an excellent complementer-complementee (not a word, I know) develop the last couple of years.
VMware has to learn to cope with challenges, not the ones that it expects to come at dizzying high velocities but the ones that will gradually spread around it. That is where my "Funnel Strategy and Puddle Convergence Framework" comes in handy. VMware has got to learn to get its ever-expanding and increasingly isolation-prone product suite and strategy puddle to find its way out through a funnel towards the industry. This is definitely not an easy task, it was done to it with EMC's acquisition , now it has to do it to itself!I was inspired about it when Citrix went for XenSource. Citrix and XenSource both have a great opportunity to do the Funnelized Covergence and finalize its direction. Most of my analyst buddies across the world saw it as a significant development, note that we didn't see it as a "Finally we have someone who'll nail VMware down!". Some folks may feel the same frustration when they will see Microsoft approach gradually by starting its low-level entry at the "markets where VMware is not active yet" as the Microsoft executive put it rather humbly.
So will VMware meet the fate of PrairieTek? We sure hope not, we don't want a firm that has done so much for the industry to go down that poorly. It hurt me tremendously when I heard (months back) about Qlusters's "destructive strategic intent" and knew that eventually it would have to close down its shop. VMware may not be on a destructive path but it surely has to cover a lot of ground in terms of maturity, business acumen, industrialization and market relevance. Market relevance must not be confused with market presence. Many firms have had momentary success with such market presence. Market relevance does not necessarily has to mean that the products are excellent, it only means that a firm X has average products and excellent practices. VMware still has to build its practice around its products but again its still a pretty young company and has a future, just like any other firm such as Citrix, Microsoft, IBM etc.
KVM has been spoken about at large in the rumor circles and may of my good friends have been whispering in my ears that IBM, HP are all hatching a secret plan to dump Xen. Well they are building an offering in all flavors for all flavors. Last I heard HP was doing Parallels (and this is today’s news, BTW). KVM is more of a flavorism thing than a favorism thing. KVM is yet another color to your virtual cloud-set. That’s just about it. It may get popular, like I said, it is beginning to get recognition and it can only grow up until we find something else and fall in love yet again!
And that is what I call a cylindrical upstaging and bloggers are getting carried away once in a while ;-)
Disclaimer: I hold nothing against Brian or any propensity to what Simon says or does. Brian is a nice fella and although I haven't spoken to him, I'm sure he's an ok dude. Simon is a nice fella and I’ve spoken to him and is an ok dude too. So peace J