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Will VMware even exist in 5 years time?

Brian talks about it on his site and thinks not:

VMware deserves a lot of credit. Even though hardware virtualization has been around for decades in one form or another, we wouldn't have it in the x86 space without VMware. The hardware and OS vendors would have been happy to keep selling hardware that was only 20% utilized. VMware turned this industry on its head. They deserve credit not only for the move towards virtual hardware, but also for the whole VDI concept. (Even though VMware did not initially embrace VDI, the early adopters / creators of the concept couldn't have done it without VMware.)

So kudos to VMware for doing some awesome stuff.

But VMware will face some tough times ahead:

  • Hardware virtualization is becoming a commodity, and when this happens, you end up with a lot of competitors, feature parity across vendors, and a price race to the bottom.
  • The "easy" virtualization sales have been made already. What's left is the more complex stuff, with longer sales cycles and more complex deals.
  • Now that VMware has "proven" the concept of hardware virtualization, and now that analysts have predicted this market will be by , many companies are entering the space.
So if I understand correctly and doing a bit of a harsh interpretation on Brian's call:

  1. Commoditization
  2. Production: A much harder nut to crack! A lot of SIs too are in or some real shock. Customers, who will be taken in for a ride, if screwed up, will be going after your hide.
  3. Mass Commoditization
Although I have been writing a lot more on it from a ideationist's perspective , I do see and feel the kamikaze look in the eyes of those trapped in the capsule who have been promised heavens. Expect a lot of the encapsulated ones to eject as well.

So a very interesting 3 years to witness, that I can promise you! Here's more on Brian's take.


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