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MotleyFool: VMware may grow upto 45% in the next 5 years

By my math, VMware's P/FCF-G for 2008 is 1.69.

Here's how I got there. First, I assumed that continued dilution would result in 350 million VMware shares outstanding in 2008. For free cash flow, I took 20% of the consensus revenue estimate, which equaled $407.5 million. Dividing 407.5 by 350 million equals $1.16 in per-share FCF and a forward price-to-free cash flow ratio of 76.6. I then divided VMware's P/FCF by Wall Street's projected long-term growth rate (45.1%) to arrive at 1.69.

Fair? Perhaps, but there are a lot of assumptions in my math. Please take what's here with a giant boulder of salt. Or take the advice of bearish All-Star luvb2b, who panned VMware in CAPS in September: "This is NOT the next Google. [Its] software is not totally unique. Microsoft has a lower end version available for free and similar products are available on Linux."


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