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Cowen: VMware's case still mixed; Users furious!

I am going to comment before I post links and other inflammatory remarks/comments of furious users/clients(?):


Fact

  • VMware is the market leader today!
  • That will not change in the coming years that fast!
  • VMware is leading this innovation, don't underestimate that! They will lead the change
  • There is no robust solution and advanced enough to take VMware in the next year or so!
Fiction
  • VMware is going down!
  • VMware is too expensive! C'mon Oracle sells its hot product RAC for rather exhorbitant prices and it was the king product for Oracle and sol the most. They are innovating database clustering and no one has challenged them yet.
Reality

  • People need to get their job done
  • People need to save money
  • People need to put money to do other useful things
  • People need choices, yes they do, but viable choices
  • Don't spread fear, talk facts!
  • Globalization is coming
  • ...and so is Virtualization!
I have spoken about virtualization at large but you have to decide if you want to hang on to fact or fiction. yourcall!

OK and now to Barron's post:

Pritchard, who has a Neutral rating on the stock, this morning wrote that the medium- and long-term investment case for the stock is “still mixed.” He asserted that over the next 24 months, the stock could trade anywhere between in line with the market to 34% below the market.

He says the fourth quarter outlook is bullish, with declining days sales outstanding suggesting a healthy backlog position. “Thus we expect solid Q4 results, almost independent of Q4 business activity,” he writes.

But he is more cautious looking ahead. He notes that VMware is increasingly selling software under enterprise license agreements, which he says results in companies making larger upfront purchases, “often forward buying more capacity than they intend to deploy initially, but instead securing a more favorable price for the software through the larger and long-term commitment.” Pritchard says he does not mean to suggest that using the agreements are a bad idea; he says the company ought to use them to lock in customers in a market that will get competitive over time. But he does say that you need to be careful with the conclusions you draw about the current level of revenues and what they will mean going forward.

OK and the users say, and here come the expletives:

Cowen’s Walter Pritchard is full of bull shit and if he was so good he should short back them when vmw was $125.00 I think he is fuck up his mind.

Comment by ryan - November 26, 2007 at 8:20 pm

we posted a while ago that vmware was overvalued. the company could preform well over the next few years - this doesn’t mean the shares are a bargain.

our analysis:
http://www.noisefreeinvesting.com/blog/?p=10

Comment by fni - November 26, 2007 at 8:47 pm

We think we know where VMW is headed if mr. Market has his ways.

www.beanieville.blogspot.com

Comment by beanieville - November 26, 2007 at 8:49 pm
Comment by Is VMW the next Enron? - November 26, 2007 at 8:50 pm

ryan: I take it you lost your shirt buying VMW. A word of advice: get out while you still can.

Comment by FakeCowen - November 26, 2007 at 8:54 pm

Sign #1 of a leader and break-out stock:
“Top dog and first mover in an important, emerging industry.”
(David Gardner, Motley Fool, 15 Nov 2007).
VMware is a leader and are currently “The Gorilla” in this emerging market.

Second, (Ivy Lessner, TheStreet.com, 07 Nov 2007), Dell’s purchase of EqualLogic is NOT
competition to VMW:
“EqualLogic is hardware,” says Parag Patel, VMware’s vice president of software and storage
alliances. “VMware infrastructure software interacts with EqualLogic’s network storage.”

Third: VMware virtualization software eyes Chinese reality.
(01 Nov 2007, Reuters) - VMware Inc, a global leader in virtualization software, said on
Thursday it hopes to expand rapidly in China, a market where it has only recently established
a toehold. VMware has built 35-person research and development team in Beijing over the past
six months and hopes to expand that to 350 by 2009.

My point of these three comments (out of a possible probably 50 I have) is to point to the
fact that VMW is in it’s infancy and isn’t ready to peter out now or next year. They are
years ahead of the few competitors they have.

I am an Electrical and Computer Engineer and understand what this means for business:
higher efficiency at less cost and with less hardware and maintenance.
That’s what ALL businesses want - more for less $.
VMW is selling to the world and there is plenty of headroom for growth and expansion.

I understand Walter’s point that they may eventually lose steam, but they’ve just started.
CROX got cut in half even though they more than doubled their earnings only because their
growth rate slowed. The fundamentals with both VMW and CROX are still there and growing.

And I agree with Ryan: Walter Pritchard - if you’re so smart, I’d love to know if you
put your money where your misaligned thoughts are and shorted VMW when it was at $125.

Check out the rest on Barron's blog!

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