Thursday, September 11, 2008
Forbes.com: Is cloud computing over-hyped?
Nicholas Carr: At the moment, yes, and that's typical for technological advances. This is a long-term trend--not a short-term one.
What's your imagined time line of the adoption of cloud computing? Will it take years? Decades?
If you're talking about big companies, I would say it will be a slow, steady process lasting maybe 15 to 20 years.
For consumers, cloud computing is here. Applications offered by Google and other software-as-a-service companies are already taking over traditional software. When young people want to do something, they don't go out and buy software. They look to the Web.
For small businesses, it's something in between. Because they don't have as much investment in their current IT infrastructure, they're more willing to consider hosting their entire business on something like Amazon's Web Services.
My take on their take: " When we were done with the stones, we moved away from the stone age as well"
I think by 2020, we'd have reached the end of the Kondratieff's wave and the real ideation age would be in full motion. The foundation of the ideation age are alredy being set and soon, by 2013 (If you've seen the "BizBulk" part of my presentation) we would see hyper-acceleration towards the ideation age.
Obviously we will also be plagued by some massive downsides of globalization: migration, desertification, poverty-traps and gaps, famine, deseases , that may probably slow the pace of the technological advances in the affected nations but in general we will see some tremendous shift. There is already a massive gap between in local societies as global societies begin to form, which cross the nation-state borders.
War too will loom over some continents as a result of unrest and also as more nations gain political and financial power and the older lords have to give away some of it. It is also possible that U.S will regain/reclaim a lot of "know-how" power and prowess, leaving the BLOC's to languish in their own infrastructural mayhem. And that may dampen the pace of Cloud's raining on the technologically deprived communities.
Back to technology, massive build up of the data centers will not only go to the seas but also in several locations where power/energy will be harnessed. Obviously a controlled and regulated jar'ing will help us unjar the global economy to the ones who are in penury by providing solid inrastructures and cloudapps that will help them gain collective indivualistic control of their destiny.
So there is a huge sucking noise coming from the Cloud deprived areas, trust me I have been there myself. This would have happened by 2020 for sure!